Are We Ready for Less Accurate Severe Weather Forecasts?

We’ve come to depend on accurate weather forecasts to prepare for hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe weather events. But with recent budget cuts at NOAA and the National Weather Service, some experts are warning that forecast accuracy may decline—and we aren’t well prepared for surprises.

Here’s what could happen if severe weather forecasts become less reliable:

Accurate forecasts allow people to evacuate or take shelter before a storm hits. If forecasts become less precise, we could see more last-minute alerts, giving families and first responders less time to prepare.

With less accurate predictions, people may underestimate the severity of a storm or fail to protect their homes in time. Boarded-up windows, reinforced roofs, and secured outdoor items make a difference—but only if people know a storm is coming.

Farmers, shipping companies, and businesses depend on accurate forecasts to plan ahead. If weather models become less reliable, unnecessary closures or unanticipated damage could cause billions in losses.

When severe weather is misjudged, emergency response teams may pre-position resources incorrectly, delaying help where it’s needed most. Less accuracy means more strain on FEMA, local governments, and relief efforts.

The impact will depend on how much NOAA’s forecasting capability has actually been degraded and how severe the next storms are. But it’s a good question to ask your senator or congressman: “What steps are being taken to ensure Americans continue to receive the accurate weather forecasts we rely on?”